What the Numbers Can (and Can’t) Tell Us about the South China Sea Dispute

How do states contest each other’s claims to disputed maritime spaces, and how can the risk of military confrontation be assessed and minimised? Maritime disputes have rapidly moved towards the centre of world politics in the early 21st century, driven by the intensifying disputes over the South and East China Seas that have dominated strategic planning — not to mention news and commentary — in the world’s most economically vibrant region.

State leaders and international relations academics are often famously at odds on the big questions affecting politics — but find rare agreement on the increasing risks of a major conflict over maritime spaces in the Western Pacific. Against this backdrop, it’s crucial to better understand the dynamics of contestation over sea spaces, a hostile environment for humans where state presence, ways of exercising control, and even social conventions vary greatly from what we’re used to on land.