U.S. and China Must Establish Military Communications

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken wrapped up his recent trip to Beijing with few clear successes and further uncertainty ahead.

Blinken’s mission had been to stabilize the teetering US-China relationship and find a way to prevent a potential crisis between the two global superpowers from escalating into a larger conflict. But a daunting set of challenges remain — from tussles over high-tech supply chains to tensions over Taiwan — not least of which is repairing the military communications channels that have fallen dangerously silent, while the two nation’s armed forces operate within closer proximity and greater frequency.

Although Blinken restarted high-level diplomacy with China, he failed to make progress on a top US priority: reviving military talks. In a press conference in Beijing, Blinken acknowledged that it is “vital that we have these kinds of communications, military to military” but conceded that “at this moment, China does not agree to move forward.”

President Biden has declared that a key pillar of his China policy is to “manage competition responsibly” and ensure it “does not veer into conflict.” China’s leader Xi Jinping agrees, calling for the United States and China to avoid “colliding with each other.” But the lack of open, reliable, and functional channels of communication between the US and Chinese militaries in an era of intense strategic rivalry, compounded by growing encounters between aircraft and naval vessels in the air and at sea, elevates the risk that one accidental collision could trigger a spark that leads to conflagration.

In recent months, US officials have sounded the alarm over an increase in hazardous incidents caused by unsafe intercepts of US and allied forces throughout the Indo-Pacific. From near misses over the South China Sea to an incident earlier this month when a Chinese guided-missile destroyer cut off a US warship in the Taiwan Strait, these close interactions risk an episode that could quickly spiral out of control.