Coronavirus

Stephen Walt provides A realist POV on the war in Ukraine, competition with China, COVID, and more in the second part of an interview with Foreign Policy Editor-in-Chief Ravi Agrawal.

Stephen M. Walt describes a "gnawing fear that we are living through a series of disruptions that are overwhelming our collective ability to respond." What does this mean for public confidence in the entire political system, and is there any cause for optimism?

Juliette Kayyem writes that to treat the crisis phase of the pandemic as complete is not the same as declaring that the country's battle against COVID is over or that many Americans' unmet needs are irrelevant. It is to say that many of the persistent systemic problems revealed by the coronavirus can be addressed, if elected representatives choose, without requiring a declared emergency as a pretext for action.

Stephen Walt enumerates the challenges the U.S. president should prepare for in 2021.

Juliette Kayyem argues that the decision to move on to the recovery phase needs to be made by politicians, not scientists.

Joseph Nye writes that as President Joe Biden meets with fellow leaders at COP26, many are asking just how badly U.S. soft power was damaged by Donald Trump's presidency. True, Trump trashed democratic norms that must be restored, but American culture retains great sources of resilience which pessimists often underestimated.

The U.S. government has rejected the chance to study this year’s insurrection. They’ll soon regret the decision.

It has been a year since the US and the world went into recession.  Because of its origins in the sudden pandemic, it was possible to reliably discern the advent of the recession before it was reflected in any of the standard economic statistics, which is rare.  (I hope it shocks no one to learn that economists can’t normally predict recessions.)

By the end of the second quarter of 2020, US GDP had fallen 11 %. This record plunge took the US economy from a level that is estimated to have been 1.0% above potential output at the end of 2019, to a level 10 % below potential in mid-2020.  Potential output is the level of GDP that is produced when unemployment is at its so-called natural rate, the capital stock is operating at the capacity for which it was designed, buildings have their normal occupancy rates, etc.

The United States and the world entered recession a year ago. Normally, economists can’t predict the onset of a downturn. But because this recession stemmed from the COVID-19 pandemic, they could reliably discern its beginnings without waiting for the standard economic indicators.

The authors share what they learned by counting the protests during the past four years.