Economics & Global Affairs

Joseph Nye explores what a second Donald Trump presidency may mean for U.S. foreign policy and the world? While the man himself is unpredictable, his first term and his behavior since losing re-election in 2020 offer plenty of clues, none of which would be comforting to America's allies.

Joseph S. Nye argues that history shows that globalization is largely driven by technological changes that reduce the importance of distance, and that will not change.

If historian Thucydides were asked about what is happening in relations between the United States and China today, what would he say? That was the question posed to me at the Davos World Economic Forum in January. I responded that he would say that this is a classic Thucydidean rivalry in which the two parties are right on script, each competing to show which can best exemplify the typical rising and ruling power – leaving him on the edge of his seat anticipating the grandest collision of all time.

Joseph Nye analyzes the causes of Russia's decision to invade Ukraine.

Joseph S. Nye writes that If there is one person other than Vladimir Putin who can end Russia's war in Ukraine, it is Chinese President Xi Jinping. But Xi has so far remained on the sidelines and is likely to stay there, owing to various domestic political vulnerabilities and his own lack of courage and imagination.

Stephen Walt writes that for all their shortcomings, states remain the dominant political form in the world today. The number of independent states has grown steadily since 1945 because different ethnic or national groups continue to crave the security and autonomy that only self-government can provide. 

Joseph Nye argues that today's challenge is different from the U.S.-Soviet Cold War.  Beijing has economic power Moscow could only dream of: Total economic decoupling would be costly, and few allies would follow suit.

Stephen Walt describes how the United States' rise was fueled by fortunate circumstances that seem unlikely to last much longer. He lists four reasons why the country's luck just might be running out.

Pandemics are not always transformative events. While some worrying preexisting trends could accelerate, it’s incorrect to assume that the coronavirus will end globalization, kill liberal democracy, or enhance China’s soft power.